I’ve been vocal about accumulating Bitcoin aggressively at current levels. Now I’m starting to look seriously at Strategy too. The same kind of confluence that flagged Bitcoin as a sizeable accumulation opportunity is appearing on MSTR, and in some cases, the readings are even more extreme.

This week at a glance:

• The RSI has only been lower on a handful of occasions since Strategy adopted a Bitcoin standard.
• The Mayer Multiple for MSTR has just reached the lower percentiles.
• The BTC vs MSTR ratio is close to entering a zone that has historically preceded sustained MSTR outperformance.
• At the previous Bitcoin all-time high with a 1x net asset value premium, the fair value of MSTR shares would be over $300.

Discount

Strategy currently holds approximately 845,000 BTC with an Average Cost Basis in the mid-$70,000s. That means, at current Bitcoin prices, they’re sitting at a pretty massive loss on their holdings. 

Figure 1: Strategy’s Average BTC Cost Basis and other key metrics.

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This has coincided with the NAV dropping even deeper beneath 1.00x; with MSTR’s market cap currently sitting approximately 18% below the USD value of its Bitcoin holdings. In other words, buying MSTR at current prices is the equivalent of buying $1 of Bitcoin for $0.82.

Support

The 200-week moving average is usually pretty notable support for assets, especially those that typically trend to the upside. Strategy’s share price is currently sitting right on this level, the same level that has previously marked significant accumulation zones.

Figure 2: Strategy’s share price tests the 200-week moving average.

A sustained hold and reclaim of this level, combined with Bitcoin showing any upward momentum, historically sets up the conditions for meaningful MSTR recovery. The level is being tested. Whether it holds will be one of the key signals to watch over the coming weeks.

RSI

Since Strategy adopted a Bitcoin standard, the RSI for MSTR has only been lower on a handful of prior occasions, both during previous Bitcoin bear market cycle lows, when the share price was in the low teens. The current reading isn’t quite at those depths, but it’s approaching them, and the direction of travel is continuing downward.

Figure 3: MSTR’s RSI drops beneath 25. Historically, such levels have preceded price appreciation.

The Mayer Multiple, simply the ratio between MSTR’s closing price and its 200-day moving average, recently registered a reading where 99.2% of all prior data points were higher. That’s a historically extreme level of underperformance relative to its own moving average, and it’s occurred at broadly the same time as the RSI signal. Giving two independent momentum indicators, both flashing readings only seen at the most significant cycle lows in MSTR’s history.

MSTR Or BTC?

The ratio between Bitcoin’s price and MSTR’s share price is one of the cleaner ways to gauge whether exposure should be in Bitcoin directly or rotated toward the higher-beta proxy. When the ratio is in the green upper zone, MSTR has historically been positioned to outperform. When it’s in the red lower zone, Bitcoin tends to lead.

Figure 4: The BTCUSD/MSTR ratio is close to the green zone, a level that has previously preceded sustained MSTR outperformance.

The ratio is currently close to entering that green zone again. Previous instances of this were followed by extended periods of significant MSTR outperformance relative to Bitcoin. The ratio is also making lower highs on the long-term trend, indicating the general trajectory is shifting toward MSTR becoming increasingly favorable relative to direct Bitcoin exposure.

Fair Value

At the previous all-time high of around $126,000 and with no additional accumulation priced in, a 1x net asset value premium on MSTR would imply a share price of over $300. That’s roughly a 2.5x from current levels just to reach fair value at Bitcoin’s last peak.

Figure 5: MSTR price targets modeled across varying BTC holdings and NAV premium scenarios.

If MSTR continues accumulating toward the 900,000 BTC range and the NAV premium moves modestly higher toward 1.25x or 1.5x, well below the 3x+ levels seen in the previous cycle, the numbers become pretty enticing! Crucially, the MSTR dilution that drove bitcoin accumulation is increasingly being funded through STRC rather than common share issuance, reducing that particular headwind.

Where Are We?

I’ve been accumulating bitcoin aggressively. I’m now also looking to add more MSTR. The combination of extreme momentum readings, the 200-week moving average support, an implied discount to the underlying Bitcoin holdings, and the BTC vs MSTR ratio close to entering historically favorable territory makes this feel like a no-brainer for a short-term play to increase my own BTC stack.

That said, MSTR is a high-beta Bitcoin play. If Bitcoin continues to struggle, MSTR will struggle more. I’m not treating this as a replacement for Bitcoin exposure, but as an additional asymmetric position at a point where the data suggests the risk-reward is historically favorable.

For more data, charts, and insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. 

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Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Strategy Stock MSTR Offers Bitcoin Exposure At 18% Discount first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

The bitcoin price looks bad, but I’m buying. Price might go lower, it always can, but there is value at these levels, and I’m accumulating. I think it’s important to be honest about how I’m actually acting on the analysis I publish, rather than just presenting data from a distance. And right now, the data is saying something that has only been said a handful of times in Bitcoin’s entire history.

Let’s cut to the chase:

• The Crosby Ratio Z-score has one of the lowest readings in history.
• The RSI is at a level we’ve only encountered a handful of times in extreme market lows.
• Bitcoin has bounced off the 200-week moving average.
• The SOPR is in the bottom fifth percentile of all historical readings.
• The Mayer Multiple is also in its bottom fifth percentile.

The Crosby Ratio

The Crosby Ratio Z-score measures bitcoin’s price momentum and standardizes it for Bitcoin’s evolving volatility. It’s not a fixed threshold as it adjusts as the market matures and volatility compresses, making it applicable across every stage of Bitcoin’s history. The current reading is around -1.7. This means 99.8% of all days in Bitcoin’s history have registered a less extreme reading on this indicator.

Figure 1: The Crosby Ratio Z-Score has just dipped to one of its lowest ever values.

The list of instances where this reading has been as low: the recent drop to $60,000, the first break below $20,000 in 2022, the COVID crash in March 2020, and the 2018 bear market low. That’s it. Four occasions in over a decade of price history. Every single one of them turned out to be a significant accumulation opportunity.

The RSI

The Relative Strength Index is one of the most widely used momentum indicators across all markets. Bitcoin’s weekly RSI is currently at one of the lowest levels ever. The previous instances of readings this low were the 2015 bear market low, the 2018 bear market low, the COVID crash, and the recent drop to $60,000.

Figure 2: The Relative Strength Index is comparable to historical lows.

Two independent momentum indicators, measured completely differently, but producing the same short list of historical comparisons. That kind of confluence across methodologies isn’t something to dismiss.

The 200-Week Moving Average

The 200-Week Moving Average has served as bear market support throughout Bitcoin’s history. The only meaningful exception was the FTX collapse in late 2022, which caused a brief but sharp undershoot before a rapid recovery. Outside of that event, this level has held as a floor every single cycle.

Figure 3: Bitcoin currently sits just above its 200WMA.

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Bitcoin has just bounced off that level again. Directly beneath current prices sits the recent cycle low, creating the structure for a potential double bottom, one of the more reliable technical formations across any market. The 200-week moving average and the Bitcoin Realized Price converge in approximately the same zone, adding further weight to this level as meaningful structural support.

SOPR & The Mayer Multiple

The Spent Output Profit Ratio is currently in the bottom fifth percentile of all historical readings. This means the rate of realized losses across the Bitcoin network, the pace at which holders are selling at a loss, is in the deepest 5% of anything we’ve ever recorded. The selling that has driven this move has been predominantly short-term in nature; value days destroyed data confirms that long-term holders have largely not participated in this liquidation. These are short-term traders and leveraged positions being cleared out, and not the conviction holders capitulating.

Figure 4: The Spent Output Profit Ratio illustrates the severity of recent losses.

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The Mayer Multiple, which measures bitcoin’s price relative to its 200-day moving average, is simultaneously in its own bottom fifth percentile. When these two indicators have historically been in their lower extremes at the same time, the resulting accumulation opportunities have been exceptional. It has happened only a handful of times, and each instance has been followed by significant price appreciation.

Figure 5: The Mayer Multiple has reached levels corresponding to previous bear cycle lows.

To Sum It Up

I’ll be honest, the strength of the decline surprised me. I anticipated a pullback from the $80,000 resistance zone, but the move through $70,000 was sharper than expected. What hasn’t surprised me is the data that’s emerged as a result, because this kind of confluence across technical, on-chain, and momentum indicators has appeared before, and the market has consistently rewarded accumulation at these readings.

Could we go lower? Yes. The realized price sits not far beneath current levels and represents the next meaningful support zone if the low is revisited. I’m prepared for that scenario. But removing all emotion and looking purely at what the data is saying, five independent signals simultaneously in generational territory, this is not the moment to wait on the sidelines for a marginally better price.

Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post 5th Worst Bitcoin Price Action Ever — I’m Buying At 99.8% Probability first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin treasury companies have been hit hard by Bitcoin’s disappointing price action throughout 2025. Publicly traded firms holding significant BTC reserves are suffering the most, with leaders like (Micro)Strategy pushing aggressive accumulation amid headwinds—yet most now trade below net asset value, creating a rare opportunity for risk-tolerant strategic investors.

The Bitcoin Treasury Companies Landscape

Not all Bitcoin treasury companies are created equally. Strategy stands apart as the industry standard-bearer, the “Bitcoin among treasury companies,” as it were. The company has maintained its accumulation discipline even as its stock has suffered, recently announcing a $1.44 billion USD reserve specifically designed to pay dividends and debt obligations without forcing Bitcoin sales.

This capital buffer theoretically eliminates the need for excessive dilutive share issuance or forced BTC liquidation, a critical distinction from weaker competitors. Many will likely face shareholder pressure and potential forced selling as their stock prices decline, creating a cascade of supply pressure that could paradoxically benefit the strongest players like MSTR.

Valuation Dynamics of Bitcoin Treasury Companies

The most compelling aspect of current treasury company valuations is that they now trade below net asset value on a per-share basis. In practical terms, you can currently purchase one dollar’s worth of Bitcoin for less than one dollar through treasury company stock. This represents an arbitrage opportunity for investors, though one accompanied by elevated volatility and company-specific risks.

Strategy currently sits at a net asset value premium of less than 1, meaning the company’s market capitalization is below the value of its Bitcoin holdings alone. The upside scenario is striking. If Bitcoin reclaims its previous all-time high around $126,000, Strategy continues accumulating toward 700,000 BTC, and the market assigns even a modest 1.5x to 1.75x net asset value premium, Strategy could approach the $500 region per share.

From Weak to Strong: The Future of Bitcoin Treasury Companies

Examining Strategy’s performance during the previous Bitcoin bear market and overlaying it onto the current cycle reveals eerie alignment. The bar patterns suggest current price levels represent reasonable support, with only a catastrophic final flush justified by Bitcoin weakness providing reason to expect substantially lower levels.

As weaker treasury companies face forced selling, a consolidation thesis emerges, that Strategy and similar strong-positioned players will potentially accumulate cheap Bitcoin from distressed sellers, further concentrating holdings in the most disciplined accumulators. This dynamic mirrors Bitcoin’s own consolidation process, weaker hands sell, stronger hands accumulate, and the asset becomes more concentrated among conviction holders.

Conclusion: Opportunity in Bitcoin Treasury Companies

Bitcoin treasury companies have for the most part delivered disappointing returns in 2025, but this performance has created a window of exceptional opportunity for disciplined investors. At current valuations, Strategy is essentially selling one dollar of Bitcoin for approximately 90 cents, a discount that becomes even more attractive if Bitcoin experiences one final capitulation flush. The probability of this scenario combined with Strategy’s positioned upside creates asymmetric risk-reward worthy of small, carefully-sized positions within aggressive portfolios.

For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Bitcoin Treasury Companies Are Undervalued first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

The Bitcoin Magazine Pro Price Forecast Tools chart provides a comprehensive framework for identifying potential price floors during bear cycles and forecasting upside targets based on on-chain fundamentals and network-derived data points. By aggregating multiple metrics, this methodology has historically called Bitcoin market cycle peaks and bottoms with remarkable accuracy. Can these tools continue to provide a basis for reliable BTC price forecasting over the next 12 months and beyond?

CVDD & Balanced Price: Bitcoin Price Cycle Low Indicators

The Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) metric has historically called Bitcoin price cycle lows almost to perfection across every cycle since Bitcoin’s inception. This metric begins with Coin Days Destroyed, a measure that weights Bitcoin transfers by the duration they were held before movement. For example, holding 1 Bitcoin for 100 days produces 100 coin days destroyed when transferred, while holding 0.1 Bitcoin for the same result requires 1,000 days of holding. Large spikes indicate that the network’s most experienced long-term holders are transferring significant amounts of Bitcoin.

The CVDD takes this one step further by measuring the USD valuation at the time of transfer rather than just the coin days destroyed quantity alone. This value is then multiplied by 6 million to produce the final metric. When examined across Bitcoin’s entire history, the CVDD has indicated bear market lows with accuracy extending across every cycle. Currently, the CVDD sits at approximately $45,000, though this level trends upward over time as the metric naturally evolves with new transfers and Bitcoin’s price appreciation.

The Balanced Price metric complements this downside projection by subtracting the Transferred Price (its calculation methodology is explained later) from the Realized Price, the cost basis or average accumulation price for all bitcoin holders, providing another historically accurate bear cycle low signal. 

Top Cap, Delta Top, & Terminal Price: Bitcoin Price Cycle Peak Signals

The Top Cap metric begins with the all-time average cap, the cumulative sum of Bitcoin’s market capitalisation divided by the number of days Bitcoin has existed. This all-time weighted moving average is then multiplied by 35 to produce the Top Cap. Historically, this metric has been remarkably accurate for calling bull market peaks, though in recent cycles it has exceeded actual price action, currently projecting to a seemingly unattainable ~$620,000.

The Delta Top refines this approach by using the realized cap. The realized cap currently stands at approximately $1.1 trillion. Delta Top is calculated by subtracting the average cap from the realized cap and multiplying by 7. This metric has been accurate historically, though it was slightly off during the 2021 cycle, and it is looking more likely that it will not be reached in the current cycle, currently sitting at approximately $270,000.

The Terminal Price metric provides another layer of sophistication. It calculates the Transferred Price, the sum of Coin Days Destroyed divided by the Circulating Bitcoin Supply, and multiplies this by 21 (the maximum Bitcoin supply). This produces a price level based on the fundamental assumption of total network value distributed across all 21 million Bitcoins. Historically, the Terminal Price has been one of the most accurate top-calling tools, marking previous cycle peaks nearly to perfection. This metric currently sits at approximately $290,000, not too far above Delta Top’s current value.

Bitcoin Cycle Master: Aggregated Bitcoin Price Fair Value Framework

Integrating all these individual metrics into a unified framework produces the Bitcoin Cycle Master chart, which combines these on-chain forecast tools for confluence. This has helped to identify where Bitcoin may be in a cycle, either close to bull or bear market highs, or oscillating around its ‘Fair Market Value’.

Examining the past two cycles demonstrates the utility of this framework. When Bitcoin trades above the Fair Market Value band, bull markets have historically entered exponential growth phases. When beneath this band, Bitcoin typically signals bear market conditions where defensive positioning and aggressive accumulation become appropriate strategies. 

Projecting Bitcoin Price Forward: 2026 Cycle Scenarios

By extracting raw data from the price forecast tools and projecting the slope of both the CVDD and Terminal Price forward to the end of 2026, two scenarios emerge. The CVDD, which has moved at a predictable rate of change over the past 90 days, projects to approximately $80,000 by December 31, 2026. This level could represent a potential bear cycle floor, though Bitcoin has already traded beneath this level during recent downward moves, suggesting current prices may already offer compelling value.

The Terminal Price, extrapolating its current upward trend, could reach over $500,000 by the end of 2026, though this projection could only be a realistic outcome with a bullish macro environment with significant liquidity injections and broad realization of Bitcoin’s fundamental value proposition. 

Conclusion: What Bitcoin Price Forecast Tools Are Signaling for 2025–2026

These Bitcoin price forecast tools, formulated using on-chain fundamental and network-derived data points rather than psychological levels or traditional technical analysis applicable to equities and commodities, have historically provided exceptional accuracy in calling market cycle peaks and bottoms. Forecasting based on their current values suggests a potential bear cycle floor in the $80,000 range by the end of 2026, with upside targets potentially reaching over $500,000, depending on macro conditions and capital flows. 

While these projections represent extrapolations of current trends rather than certainties, the historical accuracy and on-chain foundation of these metrics warrant serious consideration. Investors and traders should continue monitoring both the raw price forecast tools and the aggregated Bitcoin Cycle Master framework to identify fair valuation levels, extreme overvaluation warnings, and attractive accumulation zones within the current cycle. However, all projections change daily as new data emerges, making reactive analysis superior to long-term prediction.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Bitcoin: Using On-Chain Data To Value & Predict The Price

For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Bitcoin Price Forecast Tools and Cycle Valuation Metrics first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin miner hash rate has experienced a significant decline since mid-October, falling sharply despite years of near-uninterrupted growth. This pullback reflects genuine bitcoin miner capitulation driven by deteriorating profitability in the face of Bitcoin’s recent price weakness. However, could this bitcoin miner shift actually provide a golden opportunity?

Bitcoin Miner Profitability

The Bitcoin network’s total computational hash rate has entered a notable downtrend since October 18th, reversing what has otherwise been a consistent multi-year climb. The hash ribbons indicator, which compares the 30-day moving average of hash rate against the 60-day moving average, has turned red, indicating miner capitulation. When the longer-term moving average crosses above the shorter-term one, it signals that miners are withdrawing computational power from the network, typically because profit margins have become too thin to justify continued operations at previous levels.

The Puell Multiple, which measures daily USD earnings for miners relative to their 365 day moving average, recently collapsed to approximately 0.67. This means miners are earning only two-thirds of their yearly average revenue. The metric reveals a concerning trend, as Bitcoin has matured and the network has grown, mining economics have become increasingly compressed.

Bitcoin Miner Revenue Under Pressure

A deeper issue lies in the composition of miner revenue. Bitcoin miners derive income from two sources: block subsidies and transaction fees. The current block subsidy stands at 3.125 BTC per block, representing the lion’s share of miner revenue. However, transaction fees, which could theoretically offset declining subsidies over time, have entered a long-term downtrend throughout this cycle. When measured in USD terms, miner fee revenue is now practically negligible compared to the block subsidy.

This creates an uncomfortable math problem. The block subsidy decreases by 50% every four years at the halving. For miner revenue to remain constant, Bitcoin’s price must reliably double every four years. This requirement becomes increasingly unrealistic as Bitcoin matures and approaches tens or hundreds of trillions in market capitalization. Within 20-30 years, the halvings would require Bitcoin prices of tens of millions of dollars per unit merely to maintain current revenue levels for miners.

Structural Hurdles for Bitcoin Miners

When block subsidies eventually decline toward zero over the coming decades, transaction fees must theoretically fill that gap. Yet the current cycle demonstrates that fee revenue is moving in the opposite direction and declining as users migrate to more efficient layer-two solutions like the Lightning Network and as on-chain transaction volume stagnates.

Layer-two scaling solutions are good for Bitcoin’s utility and lower users’ costs. Similarly, fewer on-chain transactions reducing congestion and fees is positive for accessibility. But these developments and improvements that make Bitcoin more practical as a payments layer simultaneously reduce the revenue available to secure the base layer long-term.

Conclusion: Bitcoin Miner Capitulation as Opportunity

Bitcoin miners are undoubtedly capitulating, driven by declining price action and deteriorating profit margins. For tactical traders and accumulation-minded investors, this represents a favorable window to scale into positions, particularly once the hash ribbons reversal signal emerges. History suggests such periods rarely persist without eventually producing sharp Bitcoin rallies.

For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Is Bitcoin Miner Capitulation A Golden Opportunity? first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin has struggled to maintain a sustained correlation with Gold, recently only moving in unison during market downturns. However, examining Bitcoin’s price action through the lens of Gold rather than USD reveals a more complete picture of the current market cycle. By measuring Bitcoin’s true purchasing power against comparable assets, we can identify potential support levels and gauge where the bear market cycle may be approaching its conclusion.

Bitcoin Bear Market Officially Begins Below Key Support

Breaking beneath the 350-day moving average at about $100,000 and the significant psychological 6-figure barrier marked the functional entry into bear market territory, with Bitcoin declining approximately 20% immediately thereafter. From a technical perspective, trading beneath The Golden Ratio Multiplier moving average has historically indicated Bitcoin entering a bear cycle, though the narrative becomes more interesting when measured against Gold rather than USD.

The Bitcoin versus Gold chart tells a notably different story than the USD chart. Bitcoin topped out in December 2024 and has since declined over 50% from that level, whereas the USD valuation peaked in October 2025, significantly beneath the highs set the prior year. This divergence suggests that Bitcoin may have been in a bear market for considerably longer than most observers realize. Looking at historical Bitcoin bear cycles when measured in Gold, we can see patterns that suggest the current pullback may already be approaching critical support zones.

The 2015 bear cycle bottomed at an 86% retracement lasting 406 days. The 2017 cycle saw 364 days and an 84% decline. The previous bear cycle produced a 76% drawdown over 399 days. Currently, at the time of this analysis, Bitcoin is down 51% in 350 days when measured against Gold. While percentage drawdowns have been diminishing as Bitcoin’s market cap grows and more capital flows into the market, this trend reflects the rising tide of institutional adoption and lost Bitcoin supply rather than a fundamental change in cycle dynamics.

Multi-Cycle Confluence Signals Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom Approaching

Rather than relying solely on percentage drawdowns and time elapsed, Fibonacci retracement levels mapped across multiple cycles provide greater precision. Using a Fibonacci retracement tool from bottom to top across historical cycles reveals striking levels of confluence.

In the 2015-2018 cycle, the bear market bottom occurred at the 0.618 Fibonacci level, which corresponded to approximately 2.56 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin. The resulting price action marked the bottom with remarkable clarity, far cleaner than the equivalent USD chart. Moving forward to the 2018-2022 cycle, the bear market bottom aligned almost perfectly with the 0.5 level at approximately 9.74 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin. This level later acted as meaningful resistance-turned-support once Bitcoin reclaimed it during the subsequent bull market.

Translating Bitcoin Bear Market Gold Ratios Back to USD Price Targets

From the previous bear market low through the current bull cycle high, the 0.618 Fibonacci level sits at approximately 22.81 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin, while the 0.5 level rests at 19.07 ounces. Current price action is trading near the midpoint of these two levels, presenting what may be an attractive accumulation zone from a purchasing power perspective.

Multiple Fibonacci levels from different cycles create additional confluence. The 0.786 level from the current cycle translates to approximately 21.05 ounces of Gold, corresponding to a Bitcoin price around $89,160. The 0.618 level from the previous cycle aligns near $80,000 again. These convergence zones suggest that if Bitcoin were to decline further, the next meaningful technical target would be around $67,000, derived from the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level at approximately 15.95 ounces of Gold per Bitcoin.

Conclusion: The Bitcoin Bear Market May Be 90% Complete Already

Bitcoin has likely been in a bear market for substantially longer than USD-only analysis suggests, with purchasing power already declining significantly since December 2024, when measured against Gold and other comparable assets. Historical Fibonacci retracement levels, when properly calibrated across multiple cycles and converted back into USD terms, point toward potential support confluence in the $67,000 to $80,000 range. While this analysis is inherently theoretical and unlikely to play out with perfect precision, the convergence of multiple data points across time horizons and valuation frameworks suggests the bear market may be approaching its conclusion sooner than many anticipate.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Proof This Bitcoin Bear Market May Be OVER Already

For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Why The Bitcoin Bear Market Is Almost Finished first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

As the Federal Reserve prepares to end Quantitative Tightening (QT), the bitcoin price stands at a critical macroeconomic inflection point. With odds for a December rate cut now pricing it in as almost a certainty, the stage is set for a potential shift in monetary policy that could fundamentally alter the trajectory of Bitcoin and broader risk assets. History suggests that when the Fed’s balance sheet stops contracting, Bitcoin typically experiences significant bullish catalysts.

Balance Sheet Reversals and the Bitcoin Price

The Fed balance sheet versus Bitcoin chart reveals a compelling pattern. Over Bitcoin’s history, there have been only three previous instances where QT ended and the federal balance sheet began flatlining or expanding. The first occurred on October 27, 2010, followed almost immediately by a massive Bitcoin bull rally. The second instance on September 26, 2012, again resulted in an explosive rally into the 2013 double-peak cycle. The third signal came in 2019, though this one was complicated by the COVID-19 pandemic and initial market crash—yet it eventually drove Bitcoin from around $3,000 to over $67,000.

Business Cycle Impact on Bitcoin Price

Bitcoin’s recent stagnation despite rising Global M2 suggests that monetary liquidity alone isn’t driving prices. Instead, the asset appears increasingly correlated with traditional business cycle indicators, particularly the U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). This metric measures manufacturing confidence and economic activity, and its correlation with S&P 500 yearly returns is striking: when PMI rises, equities typically deliver outsized returns; when PMI falls, markets enter periods of underperformance or recession.

A leading indicator for PMI trends is the copper-to-gold ratio. This relationship is nearly perfectly correlated, but copper often leads, bottoming ahead of PMI rallies and topping before PMI declines. Currently, the Copper/Gold ratio appears to be bottoming out, aligning with the historical timeline of Fed balance sheet reversals. This suggests the traditional business cycle may be about to turn favorable again after a period of economic softening.

Conclusion: Next Move for Bitcoin Price

The end of QT, combined with a resurgent Copper/Gold ratio and historical precedent spanning Bitcoin’s entire existence, suggests that monetary conditions are about to become materially more favorable. While Bitcoin has recently lagged traditional assets, this underperformance appears tied to deteriorating economic confidence rather than fundamental weakness in Bitcoin itself. As both monetary policy and business cycle indicators potentially turn positive, the confluence of these forces could mark the beginning of a significant trend reversal. Bitcoin stands positioned to benefit from this dual tailwind, making the coming weeks and months critical for monitoring whether these historical signals finally translate into sustained price appreciation.

For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post A Pivotal Moment for Bitcoin Price first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin price’s most popular top-calling indicators failed to trigger during the latest bull market, leaving observers questioning whether the underlying data is now broken. This analysis examines several widely used tools, explores why they underperformed this cycle, and outlines how they can be adapted to Bitcoin’s evolving market structure.

Bitcoin Price Forecast Tools

On the Bitcoin Magazine Pro Price Forecast Tools indicator, the latest bull market never reached several historically reliable top models such as Delta Top, Terminal Price, and Top Cap, with the latter not even touched in the prior cycle. The Bitcoin Investor Tool, which uses a 2-year moving average multiplied by 5, also remained untested, and the Pi Cycle Top Indicator failed to provide precise timing or price signals despite being closely watched by many traders. This has led to understandable questions around whether these models have stopped working or whether Bitcoin’s behavior has outgrown them.

Bitcoin is an evolving asset with a changing market structure, liquidity, and participant mix. Rather than assuming the data is broken, it may be more appropriate to adapt the metrics to a different lens and time horizon. The goal is not to abandon these tools, but to make them more robust and responsive to a market that no longer delivers the same exponential upside and violent cycle tops as earlier years.

Bitcoin Price: From Fixed Thresholds to Dynamic Signals

The MVRV Z-Score 2-Year Rolling metric has been a core tool for identifying overheated conditions, but in this cycle, it did not call the bull market peak particularly well. It registered a major spike as Bitcoin first pushed through the $73,000–$74,000 zone, yet failed to give a clean exit signal for the later stages of the advance. Currently, the metric is printing the most oversold readings on record.

To address this shortcoming, the MVRV Z-Score can be recalibrated on a 6-month rolling basis rather than two years, making it more sensitive to recent conditions while still anchored in realized value dynamics. Alongside the shorter lookback, it is helpful to move away from fixed thresholds and instead use dynamic distribution-based bands. By mapping the percentage of days spent above or below different Z-Score levels, it becomes possible to mark zones such as the top 5%, as well as the bottom 5% on the downside. During this cycle, Bitcoin did register signals in the upper bands as it first broke above $100,000, and historically, moves into the top 5% region have coincided reasonably well with cycle peaks, even if they did not capture the exact tick high.

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Bitcoin Price: Faster-Reaction Metrics for Today’s Cycle

Beyond valuation tools, activity-based indicators like Coin Days Destroyed can be made more useful by shortening their lookback periods. A 90-day moving average of Coin Days Destroyed has historically tracked large waves of long-term holder distribution, but the more muted and choppy nature of the current cycle means that a 30-day moving average is often more informative. With Bitcoin no longer delivering the same parabolic moves, metrics need to react faster to reflect today’s shallower yet still important waves of profit-taking and investor rotation.

Excluding the latest readings and focusing on the advance up to the all-time high of this cycle, the 30-day Coin Days Destroyed metric flashed almost exactly at the cycle peak. It also triggered earlier as Bitcoin first crossed roughly $73,000–$74,000, and again when price moved through $100,000, effectively flagging all key distribution waves. While this is easy to observe in hindsight, it reinforces that on-chain supply and demand signals remain relevant; the task is to calibrate them to current volatility regimes and market depth.

Bitcoin Price Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR)

The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) provides another lens on realised profit-taking, but the raw series can be noisy, with sharp spikes, frequent mean reversion, and large moves both during rallies and during intra-bull capitulations. To extract more actionable information, a 28-day (monthly) change in SOPR can be used instead. This smoothed alternative highlights when the pace of profit realisation is accelerating to extreme levels over a short window, cutting through the noise of intra-cycle volatility.

Applied to the latest cycle, the monthly SOPR change produced distinct peaks as Bitcoin first moved through the $73,000–$74,000 zone, again above $100,000, and once more around the $120,000 region. While none of these perfectly captured the final wick high, they each marked phases of intense profit-taking pressure consistent with cycle exhaustion. Using monthly changes rather than the raw metric makes the signal clearer, especially when combined with cross-asset views of Bitcoin’s purchasing power versus equities and Gold.

Bitcoin Price Cycle Conclusion: Adapt or Fall Behind

In hindsight, many popular top-calling indicators did work throughout this bull market when measured through the right lens and on appropriate timeframes. The key principle remains: react to the data, do not attempt to predict. Rather than waiting for any single metric to perfectly call the top, a basket of adapted indicators, interpreted through the lens of purchasing power and changing market dynamics, can increase the probability of identifying when Bitcoin is overheating and when it is transitioning into a more favorable accumulation phase. The coming months will focus on refining these models to ensure they remain viable not just historically, but robustly accurate going forward.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Why Didn’t The Bitcoin Top Calling Metrics Work?

For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Why Bitcoin Price Top Indicators Failed This Cycle first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin price has started to show clear signs of weakness, and the recent move back below six figures has forced a reassessment of the near-term outlook. With several important technical and on-chain levels now lost, I have recalibrated my base case so that the probability of retesting new all-time highs in the coming weeks has fallen below 50%. That can change quickly if major levels are reclaimed, but until then, the conditions resemble a market shifting away from trending strength and toward a deeper corrective phase.

Bitcoin Price: Is “Buying The Dip” Still the Right Move?

Bitcoin is already in a sizeable pullback, but buying every decline isn’t always the optimal approach outside of a confirmed bull trend. In a bear-market environment, what appear to be attractive dips can still lead to significantly lower prices. Short-term rallies and sharp retracements are typical in downtrending markets, so reacting to data rather than pre-emptively predicting a bottom becomes far more important.

This pattern of multiple dips is evident when we analyze the Short-Term Holder Realized Price chart during the last cycle. It is also clear to see how this metric acted as a key resistance throughout this phase, with sustained recovery only experienced once BTC reclaimed STH Realized Price levels.  

There is one caveat: if price meaningfully reclaims key levels, the entire picture shifts. That’s why a small allocation on this dip can make sense, while holding off on further buying until we see deeper macro confluence is a more defensive approach.

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Bitcoin Price: Key Levels You Must Watch Right Now

The MVRV Z-Score and the Bitcoin Realized Price give a clearer sense of where the broader market’s cost basis sits. The realized cost basis of the network currently clusters around the mid-$50,000s, but this figure continues rising on a daily basis.

A similar narrative emerges from the 200-Week Moving Average, as this also currently sits in the mid-$50,000. Historically, points where this metric meets price have presented strong long-term accumulation opportunities.

Those levels rise slowly each day, meaning a potential bottom could form at $60,000, $65,000, or higher, depending on how long Bitcoin spends trending downward. The important point is that value tends to emerge when spot price trades close to the average historical cost of the network, and confluence is provided from key levels of buy support.

Bitcoin Price: What Supply & Demand Signals Are Really Saying

Value Days Destroyed (VDD) Multiple remains an important metric in identifying stress points among long-term and experienced holders. Very low readings suggest large, old coins are not moving, which has often aligned with market bottoms. A sharp spike, however, can indicate capitulation pressure, which often accompanies or precedes significant market turning points.

Right now, the metric continues rising as price falls, suggesting many holders are distributing into weakness. That’s not characteristic of a cycle bottom, where forced selling is usually extreme and compressed into a short window. At this stage, the market still appears to be unwinding rather than exhausting. Alongside this, Long-Term Holder Supply has been in a downtrend. Ideally, this stabilises and begins to increase again before calling any major bottom, as bottoms form when the most patient participants begin holding, not exiting.

Bitcoin Price: What Funding Rates Reveal About Capitulation (Or Lack Thereof)

Periods of peak fear tend to show up clearly through heavy short positioning, negative funding as shown in the Bitcoin Funding Rates, and large realized losses. Those conditions signal that weaker hands have capitulated, and stronger hands are absorbing that supply.

The market has not yet shown the signature panic selling and shorting often associated with major cyclical lows. Without stress in derivatives and without a rush of loss-taking, it is difficult to argue that the market has fully flushed out.

Bitcoin Price: The Exact Levels That Must Be Reclaimed to Kill the Bear Case

Suppose the bearish scenario is wrong, which of course would be the preferred outcome. In that case, Bitcoin needs to begin reclaiming key structural levels, including the $100,000 psychological zone, the Short-Term Holder Realized Price, and the 350-day moving average as depicted in the Golden Ratio Multiplier chart.

Temporary wicks or single-day closes are not enough. Sustained closes above these levels, along with strength in risk assets globally, would suggest the trend is shifting. But until that happens, the data leans cautious.

Bitcoin Price Outlook: Final Thoughts on Dip vs. New Bear Market

Since breaking below several important levels, the outlook has become more defensive. There’s no structural weakness in Bitcoin’s long-term fundamentals, but the short-term market structure doesn’t resemble a healthy bull trend.

For now, the recommended strategy consists of not buying at every dip, waiting for confluence before heavy scaling in, respecting macro conditions and ratio trends, and only turning aggressive once the market proves strength. Most investors never identify the exact top or bottom; the goal is to position near areas of high probability with enough confirmation to avoid months of unnecessary drawdown.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: My Bitcoin Strategy Going Forward

For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com. Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market analysis!

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Bitcoin Price Dip Or New Bear Market? first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.

Bitcoin price long-term trajectory has been extraordinary. In just over a decade, it has risen from a few hundred dollars to more than $100,000, creating one of the most dramatic wealth transfers in modern history. But the question now dominating investors’ minds is whether BTC can extend this exponential growth, potentially even to seven figures. And if so, when?

Bitcoin Price Fundamental Value

Few models have generated as much controversy as Stock-to-Flow. Once hailed as the roadmap for Bitcoin’s price, it fell out of favor after failing to predict post-halving performance in recent cycles. But while the model itself may no longer hold predictive power, its core premise, that Bitcoin’s programmed scarcity drives long-term value, remains valid.

Rather than relying on rigid mathematical projections, a more grounded approach is to look at Bitcoin’s production cost: the estimated electrical expense required to mine one BTC. Historically, this metric has acted as a structural floor beneath price. Each halving doubles that cost, tightening the available supply and setting a new base for future appreciation.

Bitcoin Price Production Cost

Based on current efficiency trends and average energy prices, the production cost is expected to rise to around $175,000 per BTC by early 2028, following the next halving. This level has aligned closely with past cycle lows, suggesting that if Bitcoin remains above its cost basis, its fair valuation could approach $200,000 by that time.

Extending this trend, the projected cost to mine one BTC could reach approximately $675,000 by 2032, assuming moderate improvements in miner efficiency and no dramatic changes in Global energy costs. Historically, Bitcoin’s price has peaked at multiples of its production cost, around 9x in 2017, 4.5x in 2021, and roughly 2.25x this cycle. If that diminishing pattern continues, even a 1.5x multiple during the 2032 cycle would place BTC at around $1 million, suggesting that the next major peak could arrive sometime in the mid-2030s.

Bitcoin Price Growth Rate

Looking at Bitcoin’s compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) since its early exchange listings shows a consistent but gradually slowing curve. When modeled as a linear regression, this trend points to a BTC price of roughly $2 million by 2035, with diminishing returns thereafter. By 2040, the model places Bitcoin somewhere between $5 million and $10 million, depending on the starting data window used.

However, these regression-based models, like the “Power Law” or logarithmic growth curves, all suffer from the same flaw: they are backward-fitted. Their accuracy only exists in hindsight, not necessarily foresight. Even small deviations in data or timeframes can shift long-term projections by years or millions of dollars, making them useful for context but unreliable for precision.

Bitcoin Price Conclusion

While models can provide rough frameworks, Bitcoin’s price ultimately depends on the balance of supply and demand. As new issuance continues to fall and adoption grows, the production cost floor and liquidity environment are likely to remain the strongest long-term anchors. Macroeconomic forces, particularly real yields, monetary expansion, and capital rotation from traditional assets, will continue to determine the pace and scale of Bitcoin’s appreciation.

If Bitcoin follows its historical rhythm, the mid-2030s could mark the era where a seven-figure price becomes reality. But as every cycle has shown, models can guide expectations, they cannot dictate them. The best strategy remains the same as always: react to the data, don’t predict it.

For a more in-depth look into this topic, watch our most recent YouTube video here: Realistically, Could This Be When Bitcoin Reaches $1 Million

For deeper data, charts, and professional insights into bitcoin price trends, visit BitcoinMagazinePro.com.

Subscribe to Bitcoin Magazine Pro on YouTube for more expert market insights and analysis!

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions.

This post Bitcoin Price Outlook for Reaching $1 Million Valuation first appeared on Bitcoin Magazine and is written by Matt Crosby.